COVID-19

Oct 3, 2020 00:00 · 1789 words · 9 minute read

Recently added: * FAQ under Helpful Information

Dashboards

Covid Act Now — Dashboard of how well each state has the epidemic under control.
How We Reopen Safely — Updated dashboard with information about where each state sits right now on criteria for a safe reopening.
Johns Hopkins dashboard — Just the raw numbers per region (global)
Rt Covid-19 — Shows where each state is at in rate of spread

Helpful information

A FAQ from scientists about COVID-19 and aerosol transmission
The Center for Evidence-Based Medicine page about COVID-19
The Risks — Know Them — Avoid Them — Immunologist Erin Bromage’s roundup of the science around avoiding catching COVID-19 as things reopen.
How to think about risk around the disease
- In short, try to add on as much safety as you reasonably can
- If you’re doing something less safe, then trade off by being more safe elsewhere in your life

Backlinks

2020-09-30
- Zeynep Tufecki’s article in The Atlantic makes the case that we’re not paying enough attention to how COVID-19 spreads.
2020-09-09
- In early February, Trump knew the dangers of COVID-19 and in March, he said he always wanted to downplay them. As much as his press secretary wants to call this false, there are tapes because Trump voluntarily sat for 18 interviews with Bob Woodward. Just Security has a [timeline of the botched response](https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/timeline-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-u-s-response/.
2020-08-01
- An article in The Atlantic complains about hygiene theater and the fact that it pulls attention and effort away from the meaningful actions against COVID-19. Something important in the article, though, is a note on research showing how rare fomite (surface) transmission of the virus is.
2020-07-25
- CNN reports that 2 students tested positive for COVID-19 a day after taking the ACT. The ACT and SAT have been on my mind because I have a child at the right age for those tests (who was, in fact, scheduled to take the test in April). I don’t see how we can safely have kids in a room together for 3-4 hours straight, and I’m guessing that many, if not all, of those kids in that Oklahoma classroom were not wearing masks. If they can’t safely administer a test like this, how can they safely have kids in classrooms this fall?
2020-07-03
- Dr. Van Dyken (a surgeon, not a researcher) posted a video on YouTube about Mask wearing and Hypercapnia. In other words: Does wearing a mask increase your personal CO2 levels dangerously? Short answer: No, because CO2 is tiny compared to COVID-19. Jeremy Howard does a demonstration of this as well.
2020-07-03
- The Washington Post spoke to Fauci and others about how they’re staying safe from COVID-19. There’s a lot of similarity in their approaches and little differences around the edges that are interesting.
2020-06-26
- One of my coworkers linked to schools.forhealth.org which offers a report called “Risk Reduction Strategies for Schools”. This report provides some very clear and concise writing about COVID-19 and the challenges and risks of reopening facilities like schools.
2020-06-23
- Jeremy Howard has been beating the mask drum for a while. He has posted a new thread about the latest on non-medical masks and their effectiveness in stopping COVID-19 spread.
2020-06-17
- Covid Act Now is a COVID-19 tracking site that I hadn’t seen before. It provides a good visualization of how each state is doing at controlling the outbreak. It’s good to see Michigan in the green, and I hope it stays that way. Michigan was apparently the only state with a 50% drop in new cases last week.
2020-06-14
- UCSF medicine chair Bob Wachter posted a twitter thread about assessing risk in adopting activities while COVID-19 is continuing to spread.
2020-06-14
- Bonus: an interview with epidemiologist Michael Osterholm from the University of Minnesota with his take on COVID-19 and the future.
2020-06-12
- New PNAS paper suggests that airborne transmission is key to COVID-19 and reinforces the importance of mask wearing. There’s a summary thread from Eric Feigl-Ding
2020-06-11
- Though it’s not directly mentioned in the article, it appears that these two hairstylists were wearing masks when they saw 140 customers while showing symptoms of COVID-19. There were records of everyone they had seen, and no one developed the illness! This seems like a big win for masks.
2020-06-11
- Meanwhile, VP Pence (theoretical head of the COVID-19 task force) apparently didn’t get the memo on masks because he posted a picture of their campaign staff crammed into an office and maskless. Wonder why he deleted that tweet?
2020-06-08
- Michigan’s COVID-19 numbers have come way down. We do need to worry about demonstrations causing a new wave.
2020-06-08
- Andy Slavitt wrote a Twitter thread about asymptomatic spread of COVID-19, in response to a WHO announcement that asymptomatic people “rarely spread it”. Slavitt says, “I believe this was an irresponsible statement even though it was based on legitimate observations,” and brings the evidence to back up the statement. Update on Tuesday: WHO says 40% of transmissions may be through asymptomatic people.
2020-06-06
- Masks reduce airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 reinforces that mask wearing reduces the transmission of COVID-19. The WHO has also revised its guidance regarding mask wearing. Larry Brilliant says “If 80% of the people wore a mask 80% of the time, COVID would go away”.
2020-06-02
- Two epidemiologists have written a NY Times op-ed about COVID-19: Just Stop the Superspreading. “In our study, 20 percent of Covid-19 cases accounted for 80 percent of transmissions.” 70% didn’t spread to anyone. Another similar article in Science.
2020-05-31
- Interesting CNN article about the COVID-19 response from Vietnam, which kept confirmed cases at 328 with no deaths. The did it by acting early and swiftly with extensive contact tracing, isolation, and a modest amount of testing (lots of temperature checking, though). Oh yeah, and a catchy handwashing song.
2020-05-28
- Reason reports that nursing homes account for 42% of fatalities from COVID-19. There has been earlier reporting about high numbers of cases in prisons and meat packing plants. This backs up earlier research that showed sharing indoor space is a major infection risk. Conversely, there appears to be far less risk outdoors. And the jury is still out on a second wave.
2020-05-28
- One thing that disappointed me with much of the data is that it’s focused on infection fatality rate (IFR). Fatalities are only part of the story with COVID-19. This disease results in more hospitalizations, according to current CDC data, “Hospitalization rates for COVID-19 in adults (18-64 years) are higher than hospitalization rates for influenza at comparable time points* during the past 5 influenza seasons.” Comparisons with influenza fall down somewhat when considered against the fact that COVID-19 is more likely more deadly but also likely to be more serious in general. However, it sounds like there’s a paper coming out supporting the idea that masks will lead to less severe cases and less deaths. If we’re reducing deaths and severity, that sounds like a huge step.
2020-05-28
- I listened to an episode of the What Next podcast for the first time, and they featured Emily Oster who runs a site called COVID-Explained, which has a few clear articles that attempt to boil down the latest data about COVID-19.
2020-05-28
- Alistair Haimes’s Twitter thread caught my attention and led me to read the We’re all in the big numbers now. This article is arguing, reasonably so, that COVID-19 lockdown has been very damaging. Given that there are countries and territories that controlled the outbreak without such damaging measures, I think it is likely that we could have responded differently had we been better prepared, and this article concluded with some decent suggestions along those lines.
2020-05-28
- The first interesting COVID-19 claim is that 40-60% of uninfected people could have partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2 due to previous infections with other “common cold” coronaviruses.
2020-05-28
- I am more interested in what comes next for COVID-19. I responded with a question: “Are we actually at the tail-end of the epidemic” as Alistair claims? This seems like an important question to ask, because it determines how we respond (as a society and individually) this summer and onward. There were several interesting responses with links to other data.
2020-05-25
- From Camping to Dining Out NPR has had some experts rate the risk of getting COVID-19 from some common activities.
2020-05-19
- New COVID-19 research out of South Korea has found that people who tested positive after recovering from the coronavirus did not go on to infect others.
2020-05-11
- As places start reopening after COVID-19’s (first) shutdowns, Erin Bromage’s The Risks — Know Them — Avoid Them is a detailed look at how the virus spreads and where most of the risk comes from, so that we can avoid behavior that is risky.
2020-05-02
- Working with epidemiologist Marcel Salathé, Nicky Case made this fabulous visualization of COVID-19 interventions.
2020-04-30
- COVID-19 deaths are actual counts. Jeremy Samuel Faust, an ER doctor and instructor at Harvard, asked other doctors if they could remember anyone dying from influenza. Most couldn’t, some remembered a few, which goes to show just how different COVID-19 is from flu, despite the fact that CDC estimated a bad flu year at 69,000 deaths. Actual counted flu deaths are 3,400 to 15,700 over the past few years.
2020-04-24
- Vi Hart and others have put together a Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience (see also Vi Hart’s How We Reopen video). This plan outlines how we can safely reopen in light of COVID-19. It’s not easy, but it’s important that we do it right, and not in the slapdash manner that some states are pursuing.
2020-04-10
- There are definitely a lot of privacy concerns around contact tracing, and I know a lot of people are concerned that once you let government people start having access to this information, they will never let it go. I understand that concern, but COVID-19 is a huge issue, and I do believe that Apple genuinely cares about privacy. Here is Apple’s documentation about the privacy-preserving contact tracing.
2020-04-08
- Jeremy Howard has been pushing masks via Masks 4 All and The Guardian has an article with two more no sew-mask designs to prevent the spread of COVID-19
2020-04-03
- Because one can never have too many face mask designs in this day and COVID-19 age, here is another one. Does require elastic.
2020-04-02
- I don’t think the CDC and WHO guidance around masks for COVID-19 has changed yet, but increasingly individuals are taking steps. Ragmask is another simple, do-it-yourself mask design.
2020-03-31
- Just a handkerchief and hair tie for COVID-19 protection.
2020-03-26
- Safe grocery practices during COVID-19
2020-03-26
- Slack’s growth during COVID-19
2020-03-23
- With Folding@Home, you can donate your spare CPU and GPU cycles their way to help cure COVID-19, cancer, and more. Works when you’re not using your computer.